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二手高空作业车:下周二油价“两连跌”跌幅或超0.2元/升

下周二油价“两连跌”板上钉钉 跌幅或超0.2元/升

多空博弈下的国际油价震荡下行,让国内油价下调的概率逐渐增大。《经济参考报(微博)》记者从多家社会监测机构了解到,新一轮油价调整窗口于下周二(7月21日)开启,从目前的原油变化率及后期影响因素来看,“两连跌”将是板上钉钉,下调幅度或超过0.2元/升。

自7月7日国内油价下调落实以来,伊朗达成核协议后对外强势表态将全力回归原油市场,浙江继续加重国际油市供应过剩的局面,同时美元走强,美国日均原油产量仍处于历史高位,国际油价下行风险愈加明显,周三国际原油双双收跌,美原油WTI跌至近三个月低位。截至15日收盘,纽约商品交易所8月交货的轻质原油期货价格收于每桶51.41美元,8月交货的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格收于每桶57.05美元。

原油变化率也随之持续下跌。卓创调价模型显示,截至7月15日收盘,第七个工作日原油变化率为-7.21%,对应下调265元/吨。“从目前的原油价格及后期影响因素判断,本轮成品油价下调落实将是板上钉钉。”卓创资讯分析师王能(微博)表示,这将是年内第六次下调油价。

安迅思研究中心高级研究员梁丹也认为,尽管美国原油库存下跌,但美国库欣地区原油库存增长,且美国石油库存增量增长。加上近期希腊退出欧元区担忧、伊朗原油解禁、中国股市震荡等因素强烈打压着原油期货市场。此外,在油价大幅下挫的行情下,中东地区欧佩克产油国仍在不遗余力的增产原油,以适应夏季到来本国电厂需求。未来一周,国际油价继续下行的可能性更大,下周二国内汽柴油零售价将迎来“两连跌”,预计幅度在270元/吨,测算到零售价格,90号汽油和0号柴油(全国平均)每升分别降低0.2元和0.23元。

据了解,国内经济增速缓慢,钢铁、煤矿、房地产等各行业均较疲软,开工率不高,使得柴油刚性需求持续呈现旺季不旺局面。而汽油受油品升级、价格偏高影响,直批环节客户需求也相对较低,基本面供大于求持续利空市场。

同时,受油价下调预期影响,目前市场看空情绪浓重。贸易商按需操作不改,100吨以上大单极少,以致中石油、中石化等主营直批环节进度拖欠严重,促销压力巨大,价格继续承压下行。卓创数据显示,截至16日,主营93号汽油均价已从5月11日最高点下跌1024元/吨,0号柴油跌幅也已高达768元/吨。

“上半年国内成品油批发行情在不温不火的疲软走势中结束,下半年也在7月的两连跌中暗淡开幕。目前国内经济疲软,加上后期原油走势堪忧的外围环境,国内成品油后期走势或难乐观。”王能称。

Oil prices next Tuesday "two losses" inevitable decline or exceeds 0.2 yuan/liter

International oil price shock downward, long-short game is gradually increasing the probability of domestic oil prices lower. The economic information daily (microblogging), the reporter understands from several social monitoring device, a new round of price adjustment window on Tuesday (July 21) open, from the current rate of crude oil and the factors affecting the late, "the two losses" will be set in stone, cut, or more than 0.2 yuan/liter.

Since July 7 domestic oil price cut implementation, Iran nuclear agreement after foreign strong will to return to the crude oil market, zhejiang continue to aggravate the situation of excess supply of international oil market, at the same time, a stronger dollar, the average daily oil production is still at historically high levels, international oil prices manifest downside risk, international crude oil both fell on Wednesday, the WTI crude oil fell to a low nearly three months. Closed as of 15, the New York mercantile exchange on August delivery of light crude oil futures closed at $51.41 a barrel, August delivery of in London, brent crude oil futures closed at $57.05 a barrel.

Crude oil rate also will continue to fall. Zhuo and pricing models show that by the end of close, on July 15, 7 workdays oil rate of 7.21%, corresponding to cut 265 yuan/ton. "Judging from the current price of crude oil and the factors affecting the late, the finished product oil price cut implementation will be assured." Zhuo and information analysts said wang can (weibo), it will be years sixth cut prices.